Between 2025 and 2030, the number of holidays taken by Dutch people will continue to grow, albeit to a lesser extent, by 1 to 1.5 percent per year. That is less than in recent years, but the numbers are still very large. ‘If you calculate it, you’re looking at 400,000 holidays that are added every year.’ That’s according to Kees van der Most, founder of research agency Trends & Tourism, who recently published an update of his Future Vision for the Dutch holiday market towards 2030. In it, he distinguishes fifteen trends that will determine the holiday market in the coming years. This varies from ‘craving luxury’ to ‘experiencing nature’. After the recovery years of 2022 and 2023, 2024 looks set to be an even better financial year. Any idea why that is? “I think it’s a combination of two things. There is still a kind of euphoria that we can just go on holiday again after corona. And after two years in which purchasing power declined, in 2024 it will be the first time that we have a significant increase in purchasing power. At the same time, we will probably have a different growth path after this year. The Dutch holiday market is already highly developed. A lot of people are already going on holiday. In 2022, holiday participation was 80 percent. That will be able to grow a bit further, to 85 perhaps, and the frequency will also increase a bit. But there is not much more growth in it. But if you ask the Dutch, they would like to go on holiday more often.’ According to Van der Most, the number of holidays will continue to grow in the longer term, although it will level off. ‘On the one hand, people want to go on holiday more often, but they are mainly limited by available time and money, but also personal circumstances, such as moving house or caring for parents or others. By the way, you can also go away for a weekend and easily make a short holiday with a few extra days. In this way, you get to 80 percent holiday participation, with Dutch people going on holiday an average of three times. The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis expects economic growth of around 1 percent in the coming years. In my vision for the future, I expect the number of holidays to increase by about 1 to 1.5 percent between 2025 and 2030, so just slightly above that economic growth. That is less than in recent years, but it is still very large numbers. If you do the math, you’re at 400,000 holidays that are added every year.’ How can the travel industry best respond to consumers’ desire to go on holiday more often? Is it smart to keep focusing on price? ‘People always complain that the travel industry focuses too much on price, while there are plenty of examples of specialists who offer beautiful trips and interesting trips in terms of content and who distinguish themselves in that respect. But the Dutchman likes to be tempted with a discount. That in itself is not a problem if you can get the consumer to book his holiday at an early stage.’ Will fiscal year 2024 be another better year than last year, as the industry hopes and expects? “Yes, I think so. I recently researched the plans for long summer holidays and then you see that there are more plans for a holiday abroad. You see a lot of things bouncing back to how it was. During corona, long domestic holidays did very well. After a sharp increase, you can now see that declining again in favour of foreign countries. The growth in terms of long holidays this year will mainly be in outbound tourism. Eigen land remains especially popular for short holidays. ́ In your fifteen trends, you also mention dealing with climate change. Is the customer working on that? ‘Our research shows that the Dutch prefer not to be too concerned with issues such as the environment, sustainability and climate change during their holidays. This applies to more than half of the respondents. Many people just want to go on holiday. They are already busy separating waste at home, trying to drive an electric car, have solar panels, so they already have the feeling that they are doing the right thing. People want to, but it has to be easy. And the holidays should not become more expensive. In addition, sustainability should not be at the expense of the experience. At the same time, there is a trend that we are travelling more sustainably, more trains, and the number of electric cars is increasing. And if weather extremes continue to occur, such as forest fires and extreme heat, people will start to adapt more.’ Read the complete interview with Kees van der Most in TravMagazine #15, which will be published this week. In it, the market researcher lists 15 trends that will determine the holiday market until 2030. ‘The Dutch want to get away more often, they don’t have more free time; That will translate into more short vacations’
